Winter as a baseball writer includes discussions about the Hall of Fame, as ballots are due before the end of the year and the results are revealed at some point from mid-to-late January. This year we'll learn the voting results in two weeks, on Jan. 26.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I do not yet have a vote. I gained entry into the BBWAA at the Winter Meetings in December of 2015 and one needs to be a member for 10 consecutive years before getting a Hall of Fame vote. I do go through the process of choosing my ballot every single year, however, so that I'm already in practice once I am a voter.
First up, the housekeeping. Even though it's a ballot to vote on who merits consideration to get into the Hall of Fame based upon their playing ability, we have to talk about a bunch of stuff that doesn't have anything to do with said playing ability. Let's just cut through the specifics and point back to something I wrote in 2017 regarding the so-called "character clause."
Just to pull one sentence from it (please read the whole thing if you want the entire context):
It seems to me that the character clause specifically notes that voting shall be based upon the player's record, which seems to me that we should only really consider his behavior while he was playing.
As for things that actually affected on-field play, we're bound to discuss PEDs (performance-enhancing drugs) here with this ballot and we won't be able to escape it for quite a long time (thank you A-Rod, Ryan Braun and Robinson Cano).
The rule that I've decided on, for now, is that if a player was suspended for violating the Joint Drug Agreement once a testing system was put into place, he won't get my vote. That means this is where we say goodbye to Manny Ramirez on this ballot. He was suspended twice. If we have no suspensions to go on, I'm not going to judge what players were doing what. The league didn't care to suspend anyone for a while and even benefitted from it -- oh, and Bud Selig was overseeing this and he's in the Hall of Fame -- so I'm just judging what we saw on the field.
As such, with all the housekeeping, the only player disqualified is Ramirez.
On that note, let's start filling out my ballot.
Given my rule on PEDs, the easiest two picks on the board are Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. There isn't really much more to discuss from a baseball standpoint.
I made the case for Curt Schilling last month while discussing the starting pitchers on the ballot. For those who dissent for non-baseball reasons, see my above comments and past writing on the character clause. I understand those who disagree with it, but I'm determined to stay consistent here.
I wrote the following two years ago and it remains the case for me regarding my next two entries:
Players such as Larry Walker and Scott Rolen have been darlings for the advanced metric types while Omar Vizquel appears a favorite of the old guard. I'm a mix of those, but I also can't shake the Hall of Fame and not Hall of WAR aspect. Sometimes the "he was feared" or "he was such a big deal" aspect is applied laughably, but I remember watching both of these guys in their prime and know what a huge deal they were. I'd vote for Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield.
One of the main reasons is I remember Sosa in the 1998-2004 range and I just can't fathom voting for Walker over him. It's not like Sosa doesn't have the numbers. He hit over 600 home runs, he topped 60 in three different seasons and ranks 30th all-time with 1,667 RBI.
Sheffield ranks 29th with 10 more RBI, owns a 140 OPS+ and hit 509 homers. Who among us never mimicked his batting stance with the fearful waggle? I know, I know ... that shouldn't count. But it kind of does a little, you know? And, again, I can't imagine going back in time to their primes and telling myself Rolen was more a Hall of Famer than Sheffield.
I am, however, also voting for Scott Rolen. There's room! Here's why.
Todd Helton is on my ballot and is far too maligned for playing his home games at Coors Field. Here's why.
Andruw Jones is possibly the greatest defensive center fielder ever and he also has good offensive numbers to support him. He's in (more on that here).
That is eight. I could stop. There's a maximum of 10 votes allowed, so I'll explore the possibility of voting for two more players. There are those worthy of discussion.
Billy Wagner was an elite-level reliever for a long time. He pumped 101 miles per hour from the left side despite being only 5'10" (if that). The arm angle and the power behind it made for one of the greatest fastballs of all time, relative to peers. He sits sixth in career saves at 422. The top three -- Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith -- are Hall of Famers. On a rate basis, Wagner was better than Smith and Hoffman and the gap wasn't too small. See?
| Pitcher | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lee Smith | 3.03 | 132 | 1.256 | 8.7 |
Trevor Hoffman | 2.87 | 141 | 1.058 | 9.4 |
Billy Wagner | 2.31 | 187 | 0.998 | 11.9 |
But did Wagner's workload lag enough to keep him out while letting the other two in? He worked only 903 innings compared to 1,089 1/3 from Hoffman and a robust (for a reliever) 1,289 1/3 from Smith. I'll be going more into depth later this week on the matter, but Wagner would get my vote. This doesn't necessarily mean I think he should definitely get in, but the vote threshold for a player to get enshrined is 75 percent. I think he's worthy of my vote and then would let the proverbial chips fall where they may.
On that same front, let's look at Jeff Kent. He has an MVP and is the career home runs leader for second basemen. He has more than 1,500 career RBI. He also doesn't really rate close to the Hall of Fame standard in WAR, JAWS or even peak WAR (WAR7). While I'm compelled by Wagner's dominance (only Rivera has a higher career ERA+ among relievers who qualify for the Hall of Fame), Kent doesn't quite do the same for me with his 123 OPS+. I don't have to vote for 10 players. I'll leave Kent off.
I detailed the case of Bobby Abreu back in early December, noting that, for me, he comes up a bit shy. Omar Vizquel collected 2,877 hits and 404 steals in his career while being a great defender at shortstop for a while. He was also a pretty bad hitter (82 career OPS+ with only two above-average seasons out of 24) and he wasn't Ozzie Smith at short. In order to make up for the offensive deficiency, I'd need an all-time great on defense and he falls shy. JAWS backs me up here, with Vizquel sitting 41st among shortstops and just about to be caught and passed by Andrelton Simmons in less than half the seasons.
Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson were mentioned in my piece on starting pitchers and while they don't get my vote, they merited mention here. Kudos on great careers!
With that all sorted out, here's my 2021 hypothetical Hall of Fame ballot:
- Barry Bonds
- Roger Clemens
- Curt Schilling
- Sammy Sosa
- Gary Sheffield
- Scott Rolen
- Todd Helton
- Andruw Jones
- Billy Wagner
That's the first time since I've started doing this that I had less than 10 names. It might be the last for a while. I'm open to giving further consideration to someone like Buehrle due to his consecutive 200-inning seasons and what a feat that looks like these days. I'm definitely going to think harder on Abreu, too. Oh and look at next year's freshman class: A-Rod, David Ortiz, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan, among others.
Until then, you can either tell me I did a great job or do the whole "I'm grateful you don't have a vote yet!" thing, that really, really hurts my feelings: @MattSnyderCBS.
